…unless David Davies falls on his sword before then.
Adrian posed an interesting, perhaps ironic, question to me: “Feel like voting Tory now [eg. if Cameron wins] that they have a super whizzo leader who may have smoked a joint when young?”
Speaking with my strategist hat on,it will be fascinating over the next few weeks to watch a crucial game being played out for the future (or lack thereof) for the (old) Conservative party.
Intriguingly, due to the lack of success in modernising the party, MPs will not cast the final vote on the new Tory leader. Nor will the voices of the Brits who could bring the Tories back into power be heard. Instead, we will hear the voices of 300.000 Tory party members, the majority who are Sir and Lady Bufton-Tufton disguesteds from Tunbridge Wells fogies (of any age). These are the people who can be very arsed indeed to be card-carrying members of the Tory party.
It’s an interesting parallel with the unelectable Labour party of 20 years ago with its membership made up of Dave and Diedre Sparts. Will those Tory party members vote tactically, nay even strategically, for moderniser David Cameron in order to have a good chance a Conservative general election victory? Or will they vote for their (conservative small c, euro-sceptic, Little England, 19th and 20th century) principles and thus keep the their party unelectable for the next election and maybe even the one after that?
Scenario 1: Davis and Cameron and their respective supporters exchange insults for the next 6 weeks. Tory party remains deeply divided. Davis elected by a slim (or even worse, a strong) majority. Davis succeeds in being portrayed in the media as yet another Tory boring grey man saying silly billy irrelevant things. He hangs on as leader or is replaced by yet ano boring grey man. Labour wins the 2009-10 general election. I don’t think the Tories will lose enough votes for the LibDems to become the official opposition - but you never know.
Scenario 2. Davis falls on his sword in the next few weeks. Cameron becomes leader by coronation. Does a marvellous job of building a New Tory party and marginalising the Old Tories who would have no say or choice in the matter. Helped by some fall-out from the Iraq fiasco, the New Tories win the next general election by the slimmest of margins.
Scenario 3. As scenario 2, but the New Tories narrowly lose the next election but win the following one hands down.
As to personal preference, I am not in any way a conservative small C or large. I wonder what would happen if they ditch the C-word?
BTW, all I can say about the fact that David Davis got his MBA from the same place as mine - London Business School – is: this is yet another example of how each year there are a few interesting exceptions to the boring norm. Such as myself and my business partner.